Vanhaomena's GTV betting blog #1

Tonight the only match where the adversaries share common history is the vs NC match, so this blog entry will focus only on that, and the fundamental game theory of profitable betting.



While the current lineup doesn't have too much 5on5 history, the side has a recent previous game against the top lineup of top team :



while , although having only 2 players at most in common with tonights lineup, showed questionable performance at the same time:

.

Tonights team is generally the same level as the one 12 months ago, having a top aimer and a "weakest link" whose nick I will leave unmentioned...

Judging by the consistency of 's performance, I would estimate their winning probability at over 65% but under 80%, depending on the map decisions - the longer maps, the higher probability of winning - so the cutoff multiplier on GTV for making a bet with positive expectation on would be 1/0.65 = 1.54. The current multiplier is 1.78, which leads to a clear bet for .

About the optimal bet sizing, we will use the Kelly Criterion, where the betsize to optimize your long-term winrate (remember that losing will mean not being able to make as many profitable bets in the future!) is determined by the following formulae:

Betsize = (probability-of-win * multiplier - 1) / (multiplier -1) * [your GamesTV balance]. By current odds and assuming the bottom of the probability range, 65%, this would be around 13,56%, which means that a player with a 100€ balance should bet 13 euros at most. Betting less is no mistake, and betting more is optimal if you perceive the probability of winning to be greater than 65%.

Good luck and have fun, remember that the most non-serious things can and should be taken serious!